The last qualifiers for the FIFA World Cup 2026 will not be known until 1 April when Iraq plays either Bolivia or Suriname for the final place. But a few sportsbooks are already fairly certain that a European team will lift the trophy in July.
In the “Continent to win the FIFA World Cup 2026” market, Europe is generally given a 75 per cent chance of being the winning region.
bet365 prices Europe at 1.28, while William Hill is offering 1.33 and Dafabet 1.35.
Polymarket, working to a lower margin than the sportsbooks of just 3 per cent before any fees, gives Europe a 70 per cent chance.
There will be 16 European nations at the FIFA World Cup out of a total of 48 competing teams, including Spain and England, which are generally first and second favourites for the tournament.
Argentina and Brazil are behind the top two in the betting and South America as the winning continent is available at 4.00 with bet365, 3.75 with William Hill and 3.50 with Dafabet.
Since the 1986 FIFA World Cup in Mexico, Europe has won six times (France x2, Germany x2, Spain, Italy) and South America four times (Argentina x2, Brazil x2).
FIFA World Cup 2026: Continent to win market
| Europe | South America | N/C America | Africa | Asia | Oceania | ROW | |
| bet365 | 1.28 (78%) | 4.00 (25%) | 11.00 (9%) | ||||
| William Hill | 1.33 (75%) | 3.75 (27%) | 12.00 (8%) | ||||
| Dafabet | 1.35 (74%) | 3.50 (29%) | 21.00 (5%) | 29.00 (3%) | 51.00 (2%) | 501.00 (0.2%) | |
| Polymarket | 70% | 23% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
In 2026 the host nations of US, Canada and Mexico can be backed at 21.00 with Dafabet for North/Central America to win the tournament.
This might be a good bet, not for their footballing prowess, but because they will at least be able to fulfil their fixtures.
June is a long way off in the current geopolitical climate and any number of teams could yet boycott the tournament or be banned from entering the US.