Iraq and DR Congo were the final two teams to qualify for the FIFA World Cup 2026 and sportsbooks across the globe think the tournament is Spain’s to lose.
From a sample of sportsbooks in 13 jurisdictions, Spain is the favourite with all of them at the start of April.
In the sample, the general price for Spain to win the tournament is 5.5, which translates to an implied probability of 18 per cent, and RushBet in Colombia is offering the lowest price on Spain at just 5.3.
France was the main market mover after the recent international friendlies, in which Les Bleus beat both Brazil and Colombia.
Sportsbooks in France, Spain, South Africa, Nigeria and elsewhere all shortened their price on France to win the competition.
In late March, France was available at 8.0 and 9.0 in different jurisdictions but 7.02 is now the best price on offer.
Whichever two teams reach the final of the FIFA World Cup 2026, they will have to play eight matches (3 group games, 5 knock-out) in the expanded tournament, compared with seven in the 2022 competition.
FIFA World Cup 2026: outright market prices (April 2026)
| Spain | England | France | Argentina | Brazil | Portugal | Germany | |
| Belgium .be | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| France .fr | 5.50 | 6.60 | 7.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| Germany .de | 5.50 | 7.50 | 6.50 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| UK .uk | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| Portugal .pt | 5.50 | 7.50 | 6.50 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| Spain .es | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| Sweden .se | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| South Africa .za | 5.50 | 6.65 | 7.00 | 9.05 | 9.05 | 12.80 | 13.20 |
| Argentina .ar | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| Colombia .co | 5.30 | 6.25 | 6.75 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 11.50 | 12.50 |
| Mexico .mx | 5.49 | 6.61 | 6.99 | 9.02 | 9.03 | 12.76 | 13.13 |
| Nigeria .ng | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| Uganda .ug | 5.52 | 6.63 | 7.02 | 9.06 | 9.07 | 12.74 | 13.19 |