Cboe Global Markets is launching a new Prediction Markets format in the United States to expand beyond binary outcomes.
Cboe’s offering aims to expand beyond the current ‘yes’ or ‘no’ outcomes on event contracts by introducing a new middle ground, enabling customers to earn a partial payout when they are directionally correct, even if the result is not precisely on their target.
Under Cboe’s new proprietary and patent-pending framework, customers could participate in event contracts that deliver three potential payout outcomes: a $0 payout, a partial payout within a defined “payout zone,” or a full $100 payout.
This new framework will initially be available through a Mini S&P 500 Index prediction market contract.
“Our new prediction market contracts essentially take the mechanics of a traditional vertical spread – one of the most popular options strategies – and package them in an intuitive, accessible format for a broader audience,” said JJ Kinahan, head of retail expansion and alternative investment products at Cboe.
“These contracts will offer greater flexibility and clearly defined risk compared to traditional event contracts, along with the opportunity to earn a partial return when traders are directionally correct. Real-world opinions aren’t always binary, and investors shouldn’t be confined to a yes-or-no framework.
“Our more nuanced model is designed to reward informed perspectives – giving retail traders credit even when they are mostly right – and introduce an entirely new way for people to engage with outcome-based trading that simply doesn’t exist today.”
Cboe plans to launch its first Mini-SPX prediction market contract in the second quarter of 2026.