Letter to CFTC chair Michael Selig calls for common-sense guardrails to be put in place to prevent people from profiting as wildfires threaten communities
A group of Democratic Senators have called on the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to crack down on prediction market platforms offering event contracts for individuals to bet on wildfires.
In light of recent wildfires in California and ongoing ones across the nation, the Senators are demanding action from the CFTC over recent reports that highlighted the public safety and insider trading concerns of allowing prediction market platforms to offer bets on natural disasters such as wildfires.
“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit,” the Senators wrote in a letter to CFTC chair Michael Selig. “There’s also the heightened risk – according to state and local fire officials – that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful.
“By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading.”
In the letter, the Senators cite recent reports that highlighted how Polymarket more than $1.2 million in bets surrounding the Palisades and Eaton fires in January 2025.
“These fires devastated the Los Angeles area, claiming the lives of 31 people and destroying more than 16,000 structures,” they wrote. “Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit.”
Another report spotlighted the launch of a new prediction market platform that accepts only simulated bets on wildfires in California and whose slogan boasts: “You can’t predict fire, but you can trade on it.”
“As the United States faces yet another record-breaking fire season this year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) cannot allow these prediction markets to offer unrestricted betting on wildfires,” the letter continues. “While these bets appear to be offered only on the offshore Polymarket site, it is only a matter of time before other US based Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) try to offer these.
“The CFTC must lead the charge to rein in these contracts in the US and offshore and put in place common-sense guardrails to prevent people from profiting as wildfires threaten communities.”
The letter has been signed by Senators Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla (both D-Calif.). Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.)
In March, Senator Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act, legislation to prohibit any CFTC-registered entity from listing contracts on terrorism, assassination, war, or an individual’s death.
Later that month, he introduced bipartisan legislation, the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, to prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing any prediction contract that resembles a sports bet or casino-style game.
Senator Schiff also co-led the Public Integrity in Financial Markets Act of 2026, legislation to prohibit federally elected officials and government employees from using insider information to bet on a prediction market contract.