Malta-headquartered betting and gaming affiliate no longer expects to reach its target of double-digit organic growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA for this year
Shares in Catena Media slumped by more than 21 per cent in Stockholm Monday after the iGaming affiliate warned that its third quarter revenue would fall 29 per cent.
In its preliminary unaudited results announced late Friday, Catena Media revealed that revenue for the third quarter of 2026 would drop to €8.3 million, with adjusted EBITDA declining to just €0.7m (Q3 2025: €2.9 million), including a reversal of €0.7m of accruals made earlier in the year for the 2026 employee bonus programme.
For the first nine-months of 2026, revenue is expected to be down 3 per cent at €30.1 million, with adjusted EBITDA declining 11.5 per cent to €4.6 million.
As a result, Catena Media confirmed that it no longer expects to reach its target of double-digit organic growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA for 2026.
The affiliate explained that several factors adversely affected operating performance in Q3, with generative search continuing to transform how users discover brands online, reducing new traffic across the affiliate industry.
Catena Media said that its traditional search rankings declined, due both to AI-assisted personalised search patterns and also to search engines continuing to elevate lower-relevancy content in search results. Certain operators also reduced their marketing budgets during the usual seasonal summer slowdown.
Since Catena Media acquires more than 90 per cent of new customers under cost per acquisition (CPA) deals, the company has limited recurring revenue to buffer against such a combination of market pressures.
“This was a weak quarter and our results reflect that,” said Catena Media CEO Manuel Stan. “The search landscape is undergoing a rapid and fundamental shift, and as a predominantly CPA-based business our results reflect the effects of these changes immediately and in full.
“The results reinforce the strategic direction we set out in the second quarter. We are reducing our dependence on search by diversifying our revenue streams, including through our newly announced TraffiqX project and new verticals like prediction markets, and by continuing to build the strength of our brands through investing in customer loyalty programmes. These efforts will be further supported by TraffiqX, the new platform we plan to launch in the first quarter of 2027.”
Catena Media also expects to recognise a non-cash impairment charge on intangible assets of between €30 to €35 million in Q3, in accordance with IAS 36.
The company will publish its interim report for Q3 2026 on 10 November.
Shares in Catena Media plc (STO:CTM) were trading 21.51 per cent lower at SEK2.50 per share in Stockholm earlier Monday.