AGA estimates $29.5 billion in legal NFL wagering
The American Gaming Association expects wagering on the 2026 NFL season to be in line with last year, as predictions markets eat into the market share of regulated sportsbooks.
The AGA predicts NFL wagering of $29.5 million this season versus the $29.4 billion wagered last season at regulated sportsbooks, with the expectation of a flat performance attributed to “the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called prediction markets”.
The AGA said that prediction market platforms, which operate outside state regulatory frameworks, have caused the growth of legal handle to slow significantly.
“These “prediction market” platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment,” said AGA president and chief executive Bill Miller.
“Kalshi and other “prediction markets” say they don’t need to follow state- and tribal- regulated sports betting laws or pay state gaming taxes. Their defiance means consumers, including teenagers and freshmen, placing bets without the protections, oversight, and accountability that the legal market provides.”
The Association noted that sports bets make up about 80 per cent of Kalshi’s volume, which includes an estimated $5.1 billion in volume from users between the ages 18-20, which is below the legal age in 35-of-40 US jurisdictions where sports betting is legal.
The AGA said that it encourages fans to understand the difference between licensed sportsbooks, “prediction markets,” and other illegal operators and to wager only with legal, state- and tribal-regulated operators.