Sportsbooks are not expecting to see a first time winner ahead of this year’s FIFA World Cup
The FIFA World Cup in North America will be the largest edition of the tournament ever with 48 teams and 104 matches. But, for all the expansion, several sportsbooks think it will still be one of the usual suspects that comes out on top.
Only eight different national teams have won the World Cup since 1930 and seven will be playing in this year’s tournament.
These seven teams represent 15 per cent of the 48 competing teams but the sportsbooks make it a 75 per cent chance that one of them will lift the trophy.
In the World Cup 2026 – First Time Winner market, bet365, dafabet and Unibet all make ‘No’ a 75 per cent chance.
Any other of the 41 teams winning the World Cup is given just a 31 per cent chance.
World Cup 2026 – First time winner market
| No | Yes | |
| bet365 | 1.33 | 3.25 |
| dafabet | 1.33 | 3.20 |
| Unibet | 1.33 | 3.25 |
| Percentage chance | 75% | 31% |
The prices reflect the fact that five of the previous winners make up the top five in outright betting market, led by Spain, France and England.
France has shortened in the market after a strong showing in the recent friendly matches and dafabet has reduced the odds on ‘Europe’ in the Continent to Win market from 1.35 to 1.28, suggesting a 78 per cent chance.
‘South America’ has been pushed out from 3.5 to 4.0
FIFA World Cup 2026 might have more teams and more matches but it will not necessarily be more competitive.